Staring down a .44 in the hands of Dirty Harry - and not being quite sure about how many shots he's fired - that's about how I feel planning on going sub-2:30 at Boston. But, given my half-marathon time this last weekend, I think it's time to seriously consider it.
There is a race split calculator that's specifically designed for the Boston course - which I've been planning on using once I had run my half-marathon. They ask for your goal time, age, gender, and recent race time - and they give you approx mile splits given the infamous hills of the course. It also gives you a "predicted" time - based on the recent race time. Here is what it spit out for me.
GOAL PREDICTED
MILES TIME SPLIT TIME SPLIT
1.0 0:05:32 5:32 0:05:26 5:26
2.0 0:11:11 5:39 0:10:59 5:33
3.0 0:16:48 5:36 0:16:31 5:31
4.0 0:22:21 5:32 0:21:58 5:27
5.0 0:28:10 5:49 0:27:42 5:43
6.0 0:33:52 5:41 0:33:18 5:35
7.0 0:39:33 5:41 0:38:53 5:35
8.0 0:45:23 5:49 0:44:37 5:43
9.0 0:51:04 5:40 0:50:12 5:34
10.0 0:56:52 5:48 0:55:55 5:42
11.0 1:02:41 5:48 1:01:37 5:42
12.0 1:08:23 5:41 1:07:13 5:35
13.0 1:14:05 5:42 1:12:50 5:36
14.0 1:19:48 5:42 1:18:27 5:37
15.0 1:25:38 5:50 1:24:11 5:44
16.0 1:31:09 5:31 1:29:37 5:25
17.0 1:37:04 5:55 1:35:26 5:49
18.0 1:42:57 5:52 1:41:12 5:46
19.0 1:48:39 5:42 1:46:49 5:37
20.0 1:54:30 5:50 1:52:34 5:44
21.0 2:00:34 6:03 1:58:31 5:57
22.0 2:06:08 5:34 2:04:00 5:28
23.0 2:11:46 5:38 2:09:33 5:32
24.0 2:17:26 5:39 2:15:07 5:34
25.0 2:23:04 5:38 2:20:39 5:32
26.0 2:28:49 5:44 2:26:18 5:38
26.2 2:29:59 1:10 2:27:28 1:09
So, should I?
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5 comments:
have you lost your ever lovin' mind? of course you should, nay, you HAVE to.
it's hard to argue with anyone who uses the word "nay". ; )
Here's what I have to say Ben, take it for whatever it's worth to you:
You have committed mind, body and soul over the past 20 weeks to this event. You aren't getting younger, and this could be your best shot at your best time at Boston. You are unbelievably well prepared, and if you believe you can do it, you will.
But what is going to make you happy? Will you be happy if you race conservatively, run a PR but go, say, 2:32? For most people, this is amazing and they'll never see a time like that. Or, will you be happier going after your sub 2:30, even if it means you fade toward the end and miss it?
Let's face it: either way you're going to run a personal best. You ran a 1:10:36, and I'm fairly certain that a 1:14 first half there will feel like a 1:20 on any other course. From there, you're definitely strong enough and fast enough to power through the hills, then you've just got to run with guts.
Think of all the things you've accomplished in your running career. This is just one more thing. You've had amazing races before, and you've still got more in you. Draw from those experiences!
wow, ryan. maybe you should look into being a life coach. I think I'm inspired after that.
GRC Splits last year at 13.1 were 1:16:15 (4 of us)
Reaves negative split to a 2:31
Bain even split to a 2:32
I fell apart and ran a 2:35
Patrick Murphy ran 2:36
I don't trust that pace calculator. I think you should run about a minute faster than goal pace for 13.1, but just take the first 5-8 miles easy. I passed guys in basketball shorts at mile 5 who went out way too hard.
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